Will Jayson Tatum's injury force big changes to Celtics amid salary cap crunch?
Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury could be franchise altering for the Boston Celtics. Tatum underwent surgery on Tuesday and could be out all of next season.
That will force new Celtics owner Bill Chisholm to decide if he wants to pay an astronomical luxury tax bill for a team that may not contend, or break the team up and reset the luxury tax.
The projected salary cap for the 2025-26 NBA season is set at $124.6 million. Boston's payroll is an estimated $227 million right now, . That total salary is for is for just 11 players, and doesn't include free-agents-to-be Al Horford and Luke Kornet or whomever the team adds through the NBA Draft.
By being over both the first and second luxury tax aprons, Celtics ownership would be forced to pay more than $280 million in luxury tax penalties. Boston's total bill for one season would be more than $500 million -- a hefty price to pay without Jayson Tatum.
Second Apron Penalties
As currently constructed, the Celtics will be over the second apron once again next season, which is 13.4 percent above the cap and set at $207 million. If Boston remains in that second apron, there will be major roster-building penalties that would handcuff Celtics president Brad Stevens going forward.
The Celtics need to avoid being in the second apron in three of the next four seasons, or the team will be unable to trade its first-round draft pick in 2032. The team could also see its first-round picks drop to the bottom of the first round along with those massive tax bills that will arrive on Causeway Street.
The Celtics were heading for a cap crunch even with Tatum, but the bills and penalties would have been worth it for a team contending for a title. Without Tatum, it's fair to wonder if Boston would be a legit contender next season.
It will lead to some difficult decisions for Stevens, who assembled this win-now roster in hopes of having a three-year run of dominance. But if Tatum is out, he could look to reset the tax timer this summer.
Who will Boston Celtics keep?
That would involve shedding salary by trading away veterans like Kristaps Porzingis (set to make $30.7 million in the final year of his deal) and Jrue Holiday ($32.4 million next season, signed through 2027-28) who would be appealing additions to other teams in win-now mode. But given their ages, salaries, and Boston's desperation, the Celtics would likely have to throw in some draft compensation in return. Sam Hauser could also find himself on the block, as he's signed for four more years for between $10 million and $12 million per.
The Golden State Warriors are a good example of this. The franchise has paid nearly $700 million in penalties for a team that won four titles over the last decade. To avoid even harsher penalties going forward, the Warriors moved on from Klay Thompson (sign-and-trade) and Chris Paul in the offseason.
