The Red Sox are surging, but will they keep it up against better opposition?
The Boston Red Sox are on a tear, winners of six straight and eight of their last 10. Has the team turned a corner and is ready to contend, or is this just a mirage against some truly horrible competition?
We'll find out over the next four days when the Tampa Bay Rays come to town ahead of the All-Star break. And then in the team's first three series after the break when they'll square off against three straight first-place foes in the National League.
While the last week has been extremely enjoyable for Boston fans, we're about the find out who the 2025 Red Sox really are. At least the team is playing its best baseball of the year heading into one of the toughest stretches of the season.
Red Sox surge
Boston's current six-game winning streak matches the team's longest of the season. They demolished the baseball against the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies, which led to a 56-16 edge in runs scored during the streak. The Red Sox put double digits on the scoreboard four times over the last six games.
Red Sox starters have also been fantastic during this stretch, earning a win in each game. They've surrendered just nine earned runs over 38.1 innings of work over the last six games, good for a 2.12 ERA. Lucas Giolito has bookended the streak with two straight wins, allowing just one earned run over 13.2 innings.
The Red Sox also aren't kicking the ball all over the field. The team committed just three errors over the last six games; two against the Nationals (in the same game) and one against the Rockies. Boston's 75 errors no longer lead baseball, with the Rockies settling into the cellar with 77 miscues on the season.
Wednesday night's 10-2 drubbing of the Rockies moved the Red Sox to 49-45 on the season. It's the first time the team has been four games above .500 all year. Boston now sits in a virtual tie with Seattle for the American League's final Wild Card spot, and just 1.5 games behind the Rays for the No. 2 spot. The Yankees lead all AL Wild Card teams, and have a three-game edge over the Sox and Mariners.
The Red Sox took care of business against the lowly Nationals and Rockies, who have now lost a combined 126 games so far this season. Can they keep it up as the Sox enter one of the most difficult parts of their schedule?
Red Sox tough schedule ahead
The six-game win streak won't mean much if the Red Sox don't keep it going against the Rays over the next four days. Anything less than a series split will take a lot of luster off the recent surge. Taking three out of four would keep the Red Sox right in the Wild Card mix heading into the All-Star break, and they'd really be in business with a four-game sweep.
Winning the series against Tampa would be huge, because the schedule gets even harder when Boston returns to action after the break. The Red Sox will start the unofficial second half with three straight series against National League division leaders in the Chicago Cubs (54-38), Philadelphia Phillies (54-39), and L.A. Dodgers (56-38). The Cubs and Phillies are road series for Boston, before the Red Sox return home to face the Dodgers. They'll then head to Minnesota for three against the Twins (45-47) leading up to the Aug. 1 MLB trade deadline.
The good news is the Red Sox have actually been good against teams with winning records this season, checking in at 23-23 at the moment. They are 4-2 against the Rays this season, and took two of three the last time Tampa was in town a month ago.
Red Sox vs. Rays
Boston will turn to Walker Buehler Thursday night to start the Rays series, which has been an adventure this season. The veteran earned a win over the Nats his last time out with five innings of two-run ball, but he went 1-3 with an 11.07 ERA in the month of June. He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay righty Taj Bradley, who is 5-6 with a 4.79 ERA.
Hunter Dobbins (4-1, 4.10) will likely get the start for Boston on Friday, which will be his first in the Majors since he suffered an elbow strain on June 2. Drew Rasmussen, who is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA, is slated to take the bump for the Rays in the second game of the series.
Ace Garrett Crochet and his MLB-leading 151 strikeouts will see the Rays for the first time this season on Saturday, with Shane Baz (8-4, 4.34) going for the Rays. Baz has allowed four earned runs in 11.1 innings over two starts against Boston this season.
Brayan Bello will start the final game before the break for Boston, coming off his 10-strikeout, complete game effort against the Rockies on Tuesday. The Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot, who is 6-6 with a 3.32 ERA for the year. The Red Sox have gotten the best of Pepiot twice already this season, tagging the righty for nine runs -- including three homers -- across 11.2 innings.
