How much warning was there? A timeline of National Weather Service alerts for Hill Country flooding
For days before catastrophic floods left parts of Central Texas inundated, the National Weather Service was tracking the chance of rain.
As early as 3:30 a.m. on July 3, more than 24 hours earlier, "isolated flooding."
That afternoon, at 2:30 p.m., more than 12 hours before the floods, it issued an for , including Kerr County.
It forecast 1 to 3 inches of rain was possible, but it also warned it couldn't rule out the chance isolated areas would see as much as 5 to 7 inches.
The , just before midnight, for Medina, Texas, just south of Kerr County, urging people there to move immediately to higher ground.
By 1:14 a.m., flash flood warnings went out to Ingram and Hunt, as well, where several summer camps, including Camp Mystic, are located. Again, the warnings urged people to seek higher ground.
The , meanwhile, according to NOAA's National Water Prediction Service, had barely started to rise.
It wasn't until 3 a.m., nearly two hours after the warning was issued, that it hit 10 feet, what NOAA labels its "minor flooding" stage. That also marks the "action" stage, the level at which, NOAA says, when reached by a rising stream, "some type of mitigation" becomes necessary to prepare for possibly significant activity.
From there, the river surged.
In 10 minutes, at 3:10 a.m., it reached 12 feet, the moderate flooding stage.
An hour after that, at 4:10 a.m., it was at 22 feet, its major flooding stage, the point at which NOAA calls for "significant evacuations of people… to higher elevations."
At 5:10 a.m., it hits its peak, cresting at 37.52 feet.
The NWS reported the river at Hunt had reached the second-highest height on record and warned of a "dangerous and life-threatening flooding event".
Whether its warnings were reaching people remains unclear. Many victims were likely asleep and cell phone reception in rural areas can be spotty. Even among local authorities, there's evidence communication may have been lacking.
At 6:22 a.m., with a life-threatening emergency well underway, the city of posted about the "much needed rain" that had swept in overnight and reported its downside – that the day's scheduled celebrations might be impacted.